Twelve days of Syria
12th December, 2024
On the twelfth day of Christmas,
my true love gave to me
Twelve drummers drumming
In the traditional carol Twelve Days of Christmas, on Three Kings Day the loved one receives a laundry list of presents. The Syrian people received a grand gift on the twelfth day of the advance of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the form of the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the ruler who - along with his father – had wielded a cruel scepter over Syria for over half a century.
Sudden Ouster Shocks the World
Let us first state that the overthrow of one of the most bloodthirsty tyrants of our time is great cause for celebration. Let’s also be clear that the swift fall of Assad's regime was largely unforeseen by analysts (including ourselves), other experts and political leaders. This stemmed from miscalculations regarding the resilience of Assad's forces, the capabilities of the opposition, and the level of support the regime could expect from its allies. It is telling that, until a few weeks ago, the Biden administration and the United Arab Emirates were still in talks to lift sanction against Syria if Assad were to distance himself from Iran and block weapon deliveries to Hezbollah. Also, Saudi Arabia and Italy sent back their ambassadors to Damascus earlier this year as both countries apparently believed that Assad wouldn’t go anywhere and that their national interests would be better served by renewing relations with the Assad regime. Earlier, the Arab League decided to reinstate Syria as a member.
This unexpected turn of events has necessitated a rapid reassessment of strategies and policies concerning Syria and the broader Middle East and could have profound implications across regional and global spheres.
National Implications
- Governance and Stability: HTS, under Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has been attempting to rebrand itself by pledging tolerance towards minorities and establishing administrative bodies to restore services. However, its jihadist origins and history of human rights abuses raise concerns about its ability to govern inclusively and maintain long-term stability. It has ruled Idlib for some time now and reports from the regio do not inspire confidence that HTS will prove to be a relatively moderate ruling party. Analysts present a spectrum of views on HTS's rise. Some argue that the movement’s pragmatic approach could lead to a more stable Syria, while others highlight the risks of entrusting governance to a group with extremist origins. Analysts offer a spectrum of views on HTS's rise. While the conclusion may seem predictable, the consensus underscores the uncertainty and potential for both positive and negative outcomes.
- Humanitarian Concerns: The power shift has intensified humanitarian challenges, with reports of mass displacements and fears of sectarian violence. The international community is apprehensive about HTS's capacity to facilitate aid delivery and uphold human rights, given its past record. If HTS turns out to still be hardcore Islamists, them taking over power could lead to new waves of refugees as Syria is home to many religious minorities (including 18% of the population being Kurdish).
Regional Implications:
- Power Realignment: Assad's fall disrupts the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, potentially altering the regional balance of power, with a shift from the Shiite axis to Sunni powers. Theran has lost a key pillar of its “Shia Crescent”. The land corridor it used to arm Hezbollah and project its influence in Lebanon and throughout the Levant has been cut. Therefore, Tehran has been deprived of strategic depth and reach. Turkey, having supported opposition groups, will likely emerge as the single largest beneficiary, seeking to expand its influence and address security concerns related to Kurdish forces in the northeast of Syria.
- Security Dynamics: The ascendancy of HTS raises alarms about the resurgence of extremist ideologies, potentially destabilizing neighboring countries and complicating counterterrorism efforts. Israel, while cautious, may find strategic advantages in the weakening of Iran's proxies.
Global Geopolitical Implications:
- Russian and Iranian Influence: The collapse of Assad's regime undermines Russian and Iranian strategic interests in Syria. It is a humiliation for Russia, which presented its intervention that saved Assad in 2015 as a triumph over the West. And Assad’s downfall imperils Russian bases on Syria’s Mediterranean coast (including Russia’s only warm water port) and threatens Moscow’s ability to project power into Africa, as well. In short, Putin is no longer able to protect every one of his allies, Russia is less strong than many previously thought and has limited resources, and Russia’s 'sphere of influence' has been significantly reduced. At the same time, Iran loses its arguably most important ally, isolating it further amid escalating tensions.
- Western Policy Dilemmas: The West confronts a complex decision: engaging with HTS, a group with extremist origins, or risking further instability by maintaining isolation. Debates are ongoing about lifting HTS's terrorist designation to facilitate diplomatic engagement, reflecting the intricate balance between security concerns and pragmatic diplomacy. For example, the US and Turkey label HTS as a terrorist organization.
Economic and Financial Market Implications:
- Energy Markets: Syria's limited oil production suggests minimal direct impact on global oil prices. However, regional instability could trigger concerns about supplies from major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran.
- Reconstruction Prospects: Post-conflict reconstruction in Syria could present economic opportunities for international businesses. Already, shares in Turkish construction and cement companies surged on Monday, buoyed by expectations they will benefit from rebuilding Syria.
- Financial Market Risks: The geopolitical shifts introduce uncertainties that could affect investor confidence, particularly in emerging markets. Potential sanctions, shifts in alliances, and regional instability may lead to increased volatility in financial markets. In our view, the main downside risks that could contribute to a risk-off climate in financial markets are Iran and/or Russia acting according to the axiom ‘Desperate needs lead to desperate deeds’. It has become clear that both countries were to pre-occupied with wars in respectively Gaza/Lebanon and Ukraine in order to prop-up the regime of Assad. Both Tehran and Moscow could feel the need to show that they are still capable of making their mark on the world. However, Tehran could face an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, if Netanyahu decide this is the moment to press the advantage. Also, the fate of Assad’s remaining chemical weapons is uncertain and US-Turkey relations could get very tense, if the Turks attack Syrian Kurdish groups supported by America. Already, while people were celebrating the end of the Assad era, Israel, the US and Turkey were bombing different parts of Syria: the US bombed IS sites, Turkey targeted Kurdish forces and Israel bombed military facilities suspected of storing chemical weapons.
To conclude, the fall of Assad and HTS's takeover mark a pivotal juncture for Syria and the Middle East. While there are opportunities for positive change, significant challenges persist. In our Global Political Analysis, we will keep close tabs on the developments in the Middle East and the possible consequences for oil prices and other financial markets.
