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Technical Trend Outlook

Semis to the sky: Melt-up phase is there

Thursday, 07 May 2026, written by Henk-Jan Pijper

The AI-fueled surge in semiconductor stocks is pushing the main US stock markets deeper into what increasingly looks like a classic melt-up phase. With very narrow market leadership and sentiment turning more euphoric, the rally may be entering its most explosive stage yet. Historically, these late-stage melt-up phases can persist far longer than expected. Is this the start of a final buying climax before a major reversal?

 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

US stock market: From buying the dips to selling the rallies?

Thursday, 09 April 2026

There are signs that US stock market bulls are quickly gaining back control - the semiconductor index is already making new all-time highs. At the same time, there is a good case to be made for renewed price weakness over the coming weeks or months..


Announcement: Due to the author being out of the office, the next edition of the Technical Trend Outlook report will be published on Thursday May 7, 2026.

 

 

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Decision time for the former US big tech leaders

Thursday, 26 March 2026

The next larger move in the US stock market depends heavily on whether the Magnificent 7 resume their leadership role or continue lagging..

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All eyes on the German 10-year yield

Thursday, 12 March 2026

The German 10-year yield is very close to multi-year highs and may be on the verge of a longer-term bullish breakout...
 

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