Technical Trend Outlook

The AI-fueled surge in semiconductor stocks is pushing the main US stock markets deeper into what increasingly looks like a classic melt-up phase. With very narrow market leadership and sentiment turning more euphoric, the rally may be entering its most explosive stage yet. Historically, these late-stage melt-up phases can persist far longer than expected. Is this the start of a final buying climax before a major reversal?

There are signs that US stock market bulls are quickly gaining back control - the semiconductor index is already making new all-time highs. At the same time, there is a good case to be made for renewed price weakness over the coming weeks or months..

Announcement: Due to the author being out of the office, the next edition of the Technical Trend Outlook report will be published on Thursday May 7, 2026.

The next larger move in the US stock market depends heavily on whether the Magnificent 7 resume their leadership role or continue lagging..