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Technical Trend Outlook

A fragile US bull market

Thursday, 06 November 2025, written by Henk-Jan Pijper

We see increasing vulnerability across major US stock markets, with the benchmark S&P 500 showing signs of exhaustion after the latest narrow advance. While Europe and the UK stock indices remain in constructive uptrends, Japan’s rally appears overextended and due for a pause.

What’s more in this report:

  • Government bond yields stay range-bound, but strong potential for a renewed rising phase looms once key resistance levels give way.
  • Credit spreads show tentative bottoming patterns.
  • Gold and mining stocks have likely peaked following a blow-off phase.
  • The dollar’s strength continues to weigh on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Don't overstay the US stock market party

Thursday, 23 October 2025

Is the recent pullback in US stock indices just a small dip in the bull run, or the start of a larger stock market correction?

What’s more in this report:

  • The Nikkei-225 index keeps hitting record highs, but the risk of a correction is high and increasing.
  • Blow-off top for gold hints at a prolonged cooling-off period.
  • WTI may have staged another successful test of the very significant price support zone just above 55. 
     
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Strong trends, very stretched conditions

Thursday, 09 October 2025

US stock markets continue to show impressive resilience, but signs of exhaustion are emerging. Precious metals appear to be in a final blow-off phase after months of near-vertical gains. In short, the risk of a more prolonged cooling-off period is high...

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US stock market rallies at risk: Pullbacks loom amid longer-term bullish trends

Thursday, 25 September 2025

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are showing signs of short-term exhaustion after steep rallies, yet the broader trend remains bullish with long-term targets still in sight. Europe offers dip-buying opportunities, while Japan and China sustain upward momentum. Precious metals stay strong, with gold eyeing 4000 and silver targeting its 2011 high near 50...
 

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