Global stock markets remain within broadly constructive longer term uptrends, but increasingly mature bull markets are showing signs of consolidation and investor complacency. While we continue to favour further gains in several major markets, the near-term picture has become less clear-cut. Could the next move be another leg higher - or even a late-stage melt-up - or are some markets becoming increasingly vulnerable to a more meaningful correction?
Elsewhere, we see a fresh bullish breakout in agricultural commodities and the potential for a similar development in Dutch natural gas.
While the S&P 500 continues to consolidate within a constructive long-term uptrend, technology leadership has deteriorated sharply.The Nasdaq 100 has entered a more meaningful correction, China's technical outlook has weakened further, and markets are becoming increasingly selective. This report identifies the key support and resistance levels that will determine whether recent weakness proves temporary or marks the beginning of a broader trend reversal.
The majority of stock market indices continue to consolidate within their dominant uptrends. At the same time, a growing number of technical divergences, rising complacency and weakening semiconductors suggest that downside risks are gradually increasing beneath the surface.
Beneath the US market's recent consolidation, leadership has shifted away from mega-cap technology towards a broader group of stocks. We assess whether this rotation supports another bull leg higher, or if it is the calm before a larger correction commences..
