Global Political Analysis

The war between Israel and Iran is the outcome of a long-standing rivalry, deeply intertwined with the broader power struggle in the region and a shifting global order. In this report, we briefly outline the current state of affairs, the underlying motivations of the key players, the possible scenarios, and the implications for markets and the global economy.

Several global shocks and rising geopolitical tensions are making globalization - and its positive effects - less obvious. History suggests that the pendulum may swing in the direction of protectionism and fragmentation in the near future, but this is not certain. What are the possible scenarios, which is most likely and what does this mean for financial markets?
 

Recent geopolitical and economic developments – from trade deals to aggressive military rhetoric –  are merely the opening salvos of a far greater confrontation. These events are not disconnected threads, but part of a tapestry being woven by the rivalry between China and the US.