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Global Political Analysis

The Israel-Iran clash: de-escalation or descent into regional war?

Thursday, 19 June 2025, written by Andy Langenkamp

The war between Israel and Iran is the outcome of a long-standing rivalry, deeply intertwined with the broader power struggle in the region and a shifting global order. In this report, we briefly outline the current state of affairs, the underlying motivations of the key players, the possible scenarios, and the implications for markets and the global economy.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Historical lessons for an uncertain geopolitical future

Thursday, 05 June 2025

Several global shocks and rising geopolitical tensions are making globalization - and its positive effects - less obvious. History suggests that the pendulum may swing in the direction of protectionism and fragmentation in the near future, but this is not certain. What are the possible scenarios, which is most likely and what does this mean for financial markets?
 

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Dragon vs Eagle – The Making of A New World Order

Thursday, 22 May 2025

Recent geopolitical and economic developments – from trade deals to aggressive military rhetoric –  are merely the opening salvos of a far greater confrontation. These events are not disconnected threads, but part of a tapestry being woven by the rivalry between China and the US.

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Will Trumpism engulf the rest of the world?

Thursday, 08 May 2025

From Washington to Westminster: how one man reshapes global politics. Is Trumpism contagious? Meet the countries swept by the populist wave—and those fighting back. Find out who wins, who loses, and what it means for financial markets. 

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Political Insights

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The Golden Trump Wave? 21st January 2025

The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has led to months of global speculation about how his second term will shape the world economy, geopolitics, and financial markets. In his...

2025 - A Year of upheaval?  7thJanuary, 2025

As 2025 has begun, businesses and asset managers are bracing for continued geopolitical uncertainty, with significant concerns about U.S.-China relations, global instability, and rising protectionism...

Twelve Days Of Syria 12th December, 2024
Let us first state that the overthrow of one of the most bloodthirsty tyrants of our time is great cause for celebration. Let’s also be clear that the swift fall of Assad's regime was largely unforeseen by analysts (including ourselves), other experts and political leaders. This stemmed from miscalculations regarding

Trump’s 3D Chess Game 26th November, 2024

Years ago, when we started with our Global Political Analysis publication back in 2008, I wrote about professor Joseph Nye's 2002 “3D chessboard” framework of looking at international relations. 

The Donald Show Part II  12th November, 2024

Donald Trump must wait a few more months before he takes over the reins from President Joe Biden, but he is already rolling out the red carpet for The Donald Show Part II. 

Extra Update: Revenge of the deplorables 6th November 2024

Earlier today in an update, we covered market reactions to Donald Trump's victory in the US election. In this political special, we cast the net wider and look at what impact the new American political constellation will have on several policy areas and its implications for various asset markets.

Is US democracy dying in the limelight?, 29th October 2024

The Washington Post's slogan is “Democracy dies in darkness.” Critics of Donald Trump would argue that democracy came under even greater pressure in the full spotlight this past weekend.

Gold bugs harbingers of a massive flight towards safe havens?, 15th October 2024

"But all I hear is doom and gloom, With all is darkness in my room" - Rolling Stones – Doom and Gloom

If we are to believe Donald Trump and Keir Starmer, this song by the old rockers reflects today's world. Trump said..Read more

Five Scenarios for the Middle East Crisis, 3rd October 2024

The Middle East conflict is heating up fast. Israel’s incursion into Lebanon and Iran’s missile strikes on Israeli soil have pushed the region closer to a dangerous tipping point, with some fearing the outbreak of a full-scale war. As Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel remain locked in hostilities, we see several possible outcomes...Read more

 

Also available: Analysis on request & consultancy  

In today’s complex, volatile and interconnected business and investing climate, decision-makers often struggle to effectively sift through the volumes of data about (geo)political, financial and economic risks. With our Global Political Analysis reports and Bi-Weekly insights we filter out the noise and help you understand the political risks on the horizon. For clients in need of customized analysis, monitoring, scenarios and forecasts, we offer various consultancy services and write analyses on request. Feel free to contact our Senior Political Analyst, Andy Langenkamp, to discuss the options.