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Currencies Outlook

The influence of public finances on FX markets is growing

Wednesday, 13 May 2026, written by Edward Markus

Movements in the major currency exchange rates have been limited recently. However, we think this will change, with the outlook for public finances playing a key role. The situation in the United Kingdom clearly illustrates why…

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Previous reports

EUR/USD heading for lower levels

Thursday, 30 April 2026

The market is anticipating three rate hikes by the ECB and a pause by the Fed. We see good reasons why things could turn out exactly the opposite: a less decisive ECB and a Fed that could hike rates more than currently priced in. This could have major implications for the EUR/USD exchange rate, among other things.

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Currency markets are getting ahead of themselves

Thursday, 16 April 2026

The recent rebound in risk appetite has pushed currencies as if the Middle East shock is already fading. We think that is too complacent: as long as Hormuz remains closed, oil, inflation and policy divergence will continue to dominate currency markets.

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Middle East situation continues to dominate currency markets

Thursday, 02 April 2026

The influence of interest rate differentials on exchange rates is diminishing due to the surging impact of higher energy prices. What does this mean for the outlook for the main exchange rates?

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FX market volatility can quickly erode margins and even competitiveness.

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