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Currencies Outlook

GBP outlook improves due to geopolitical developments

Thursday, 08 January 2026, written by Edward Markus

We expect increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties will have a growing impact on currency markets. The dollar appears vulnerable, but it could benefit if Trump gets his way and the US takes over Greenland. The yen is also vulnerable, while geopolitical unrest could have a positive effect on the pound. You can read what all this means in concrete terms for the most important FX rates in this currency report.

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Previous reports

Three factors that will shape the currency markets in 2026

Thursday, 11 December 2025

Developments in Japan, the US Supreme Court, and long-term yields could have a significant impact on currency markets in the coming quarters, while in the short term, the Fed's decision to expand its balance sheet (QE) will have an impact. What does this mean in concrete terms for the outlook for the dollar and other major currencies?
 

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Rise in pound and fall in Swiss franc temporary affair

Thursday, 27 November 2025

Kevin Hassett is tipped to become the new Fed chairman and, like Trump, he is an advocate of much lower interest rates. This is negative for the dollar, but we do not expect dollar weakness to persist for long. Nor do we view the recent movements in the British pound and the Swiss franc as the start of a new trend...

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Positive dollar outlook for 2026

Thursday, 13 November 2025

We do not expect the end of the US government shutdown to immediately lead to a stronger dollar. The outlook for the dollar in 2026 is much more positive, but this does not apply to the British pound..
 

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