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Currencies Outlook

Crowding out is back

Thursday, 29 October 2026, written by Edward Markus

Higher interest rates do not seem to deter governments and AI companies from heavy borrowing. This leads to "crowding out" and forces central banks to raise rates even further. Read our new currency report to find out what this means for the dollar, the euro and the other major currencies.

This report is published: Weekly

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Previous reports

Interest rates, energy prices and carry trades set the tone

Thursday, 15 October 2026

Rising interest rates are hitting Europe harder than the US and Japan, especially now that French public finances are under pressure. Find out in our latest FX report what this, together with carry trades and higher energy prices, means for EUR/USD and the other major currencies.

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Interest rate policy and political risks are taking their toll on the euro

Thursday, 01 October 2026

How much further do central banks need to raise interest rates to bring inflation back to 2%? That depends on second-round effects and on uncertain potential growth. The answer differs between the US and Europe, and that difference has major consequences for EUR/USD. Read our latest currency report to see how far those consequences reach and how the other major currencies respond.

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Carry trades, political risks, and energy prices could shake up sluggish currency markets

Thursday, 17 September 2026

Volatility in the currency markets is low. This increases the appeal of carry trades and their influence on the markets. We do not expect volatility in the currency markets to remain low for long. Higher energy prices and interest rates are having a different impact on the U.S. and European economies, and we expect political risks to increase, particularly in the Eurozone. In this report, we examine which currencies will benefit from this and which will not.

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Hedging Currency Risks

FX market volatility can quickly erode margins and even competitiveness.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands on execution support.

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  • Fresh perspective in a changing market: ICC identifies opportunities or inefficiencies that may not be visible to an in house team or to long standing bank relationships.
  • Governance and accountability: Regulators, boards, and auditors increasingly expect evidence that treasury and risk management decisions are independently validated.

With ICC’s hedging specialists and real time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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