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Currencies Outlook

Uncertainty about the US economy

Thursday, 30 October 2025, written by Maarten Spek

This week, the Fed cut interest rates, while the Bank of Japan and the ECB kept theirs unchanged. Despite this, the dollar is strengthening rather than weakening. In this currency report, we examine why this is happening and what the outlook is for the most important exchange rates.
 

This report is published: Weekly

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Previous reports

Are fears of a sharp slowdown in US growth justified?

Thursday, 16 October 2025

The ongoing government shutdown and escalating trade tensions with China are heightening concerns that US growth could slow more than the Fed can tolerate. While these are likely temporary headwinds for the dollar, the key question is: what happens to the greenback once the shutdown ends and trade tensions subside?

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Dollar bears’ patience put to the test

Monday, 06 October 2025

Renewed political turmoil in France and the prospect of a more expansive fiscal policy in Japan are causing increased volatility on the currency markets at the start of this week. The dollar is benefiting, despite the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Fed. How long will this last?

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EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Tuesday, 30 September 2025

The US and the UK have large twin deficits and are therefore dependent on foreign capital. Due to concerns about growth and political uncertainty, the UK is struggling to attract sufficient foreign capital, resulting in rising interest rates and a falling pound. Is this a precursor for the US and the dollar?
 

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