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Currencies Outlook

Currency markets are getting ahead of themselves

Thursday, 16 April 2026, written by Edward Markus

The recent rebound in risk appetite has pushed currencies as if the Middle East shock is already fading. We think that is too complacent: as long as Hormuz remains closed, oil, inflation and policy divergence will continue to dominate currency markets.

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Previous reports

Middle East situation continues to dominate currency markets

Thursday, 02 April 2026

The influence of interest rate differentials on exchange rates is diminishing due to the surging impact of higher energy prices. What does this mean for the outlook for the main exchange rates?

English Nederlands

Euro and Pound Vulnerable Due to Rising Energy Prices

Thursday, 19 March 2026

Developments in the Middle East are likely to have the greatest impact on the currency markets for the time being. The markets expect the conflict to end soon and for energy prices to fall again thereafter. We are less certain of this for several reasons. What does this mean for major exchange rates?

English Nederlands

Dollar regains safe haven status

Thursday, 05 March 2026

Geopolitical risk is pushing up energy prices — and that is changing FX dynamics. In this update, we show why the dollar is once again becoming the preferred safe haven, how higher energy prices are limiting central banks' room for manoeuvre, and what this means for the major currency pairs in the coming months.

English Nederlands
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