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Currencies Outlook

Is the Middle East war set to upend currency markets?

Monday, 16 June 2025, written by Edward Markus

Further escalation of the Israel-Iran clash could push oil prices even higher. Which economies are most affected, what does it mean for monetary policy and how will currency markets react?

This report is published: Weekly

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Previous reports

EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Wednesday, 11 June 2025

The US government wants to stimulate the economy with the one big beautiful tax bill. However, we do not see it helping US growth much and this opens the door for more interest rate cuts by the Fed next year, which may already be discounted in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the coming months....

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Import tariff uncertainty rises again

Monday, 02 June 2025

The central banks of Japan, the UK and Switzerland are in an uneasy position, while trade war uncertainty is increasing again due to court rulings in the US. How will these central banks react and what does that mean for their currencies against the euro and dollar?
 

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EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Monday, 26 May 2025

Trump threatens a 50% tariff on EU imports. Coupled with elevated US-EU interest rate differentials, this could intensify downward pressure on EUR/USD. How far could the FX pair fall, and does this rule out new highs?

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Download our forecasts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the period from January to December 2024 here below. 

 

See Past Predictions