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Currencies Outlook

Interest rate policy and political risks are taking their toll on the euro

Thursday, 01 October 2026, written by Maarten Spek

How much further do central banks need to raise interest rates to bring inflation back to 2%? That depends on second-round effects and on uncertain potential growth. The answer differs between the US and Europe, and that difference has major consequences for EUR/USD. Read our latest currency report to see how far those consequences reach and how the other major currencies respond.

This report is published: Weekly

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Previous reports

Carry trades, political risks, and energy prices could shake up sluggish currency markets

Thursday, 17 September 2026

Volatility in the currency markets is low. This increases the appeal of carry trades and their influence on the markets. We do not expect volatility in the currency markets to remain low for long. Higher energy prices and interest rates are having a different impact on the U.S. and European economies, and we expect political risks to increase, particularly in the Eurozone. In this report, we examine which currencies will benefit from this and which will not.

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Yen shakes up sluggish currency markets

Thursday, 03 September 2026

Japan and the U.S. intervened jointly to prop up the yen, with mixed results. Meanwhile, Washington fears that Tokyo may have to sell U.S. government bonds to secure enough dollars, with all the consequences that entails for long-term U.S. yields. You can read about what this means for the yen, the dollar, and other currency markets in our full report.

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Beware of rising real interest rates

Thursday, 20 August 2026

Supply-demand dynamics in capital markets are deteriorating: government deficits and the AI boom are driving up demand for capital, while an aging population and declining confidence in the US are constraining supply. In our latest currency outlook we discuss what this means for EUR/USD and the other major currency pairs.

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Hedging Currency Risks

FX market volatility can quickly erode margins and even competitiveness.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands on execution support.

ICC helps improve and optimize both your FX hedging strategy and its execution. During live transactions, ICC ensures that agreed terms are respected by your banks and brokers, and that no hidden markups are added.

When should you reach out?

  • Fresh perspective in a changing market: ICC identifies opportunities or inefficiencies that may not be visible to an in house team or to long standing bank relationships.
  • Governance and accountability: Regulators, boards, and auditors increasingly expect evidence that treasury and risk management decisions are independently validated.

With ICC’s hedging specialists and real time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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