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Currencies Outlook

EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Tuesday, 19 August 2025, written by Edward Markus

The markets expect the Fed to have more room to cut interest rates than the ECB, while the UK Chancellor faces pressure to tighten fiscal policy. This could favor the euro, but several caveats remain.

This report is published: Weekly

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Previous reports

Declining trade uncertainty supports the dollar

Monday, 28 July 2025

The US has concluded trade deals with many major economies, reducing uncertainty and allowing companies and investors to focus more on next year, when the US economy will benefit from tax cuts. This is positive for the dollar, but how long will the upward pressure on the dollar continue?
 

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EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Tuesday, 22 July 2025

Interest rate differentials between the US and Europe have widened and may increase further if the Fed does not cut interest rates for now. What does that mean for EUR/USD?
 

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Pound exchange rate: the canary in the coal mine

Monday, 14 July 2025

The grim outlook for global government finances and central bank responses are increasingly shaping currency markets, with Britain as the canary in the coal mine. What lies ahead?

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Download our forecasts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the period from January to December 2024 here below. 

 

See Past Predictions