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Currencies Outlook

The crucial role of productivity growth for currency markets

Thursday, 05 February 2026, written by Edward Markus

If productivity growth continue to rise, central banks will have much more latitude to cut interest rates, particularly in the US. This would be negative for the dollar. However, this is not our most likely scenario...

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Previous reports

US dollar more vulnerable to geopolitical tensions

Thursday, 22 January 2026

Due to the strong growth of the US economy and relatively high interest rates, dollar assets remain attractive to foreign investors. Meanwhile, concerns are growing about more aggressive US foreign policy. Which factor will weigh more heavily in the coming period, and what does this mean for EUR/USD?

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GBP outlook improves due to geopolitical developments

Thursday, 08 January 2026

We expect increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties will have a growing impact on currency markets. The dollar appears vulnerable, but it could benefit if Trump gets his way and the US takes over Greenland. The yen is also vulnerable, while geopolitical unrest could have a positive effect on the pound. You can read what all this means in concrete terms for the most important FX rates in this currency report.

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Three factors that will shape the currency markets in 2026

Thursday, 11 December 2025

Developments in Japan, the US Supreme Court, and long-term yields could have a significant impact on currency markets in the coming quarters, while in the short term, the Fed's decision to expand its balance sheet (QE) will have an impact. What does this mean in concrete terms for the outlook for the dollar and other major currencies?
 

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