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Currencies Outlook

EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Monday, 26 May 2025, written by Eddy Markus

Trump threatens a 50% tariff on EU imports. Coupled with elevated US-EU interest rate differentials, this could intensify downward pressure on EUR/USD. How far could the FX pair fall, and does this rule out new highs?

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Previous reports

EUR/USD and EUR/CNH on an upward trajectory

Monday, 19 May 2025

Widening interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe bolster the dollar. Yet, fading hopes for lower import tariffs and uncertainty from Trump’s policies weigh heavily. Could this trigger a new dollar downturn?

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EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Wednesday, 14 May 2025

The dollar is gaining from lower import tariffs and fading US recession fears, but it's too early to call this the start of a sustained uptrend.

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Temporary rebound of the dollar

Wednesday, 07 May 2025

Trump expects to sign trade deals soon, potentially supporting the dollar short-term. However, several factors suggest this rebound won’t last. Our latest FX report explains why and what it means for EUR/USD.
 

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Download our forecasts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the period from January to December 2024 here below. 

 

See Past Predictions