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Currencies Outlook

Euro and Pound Vulnerable Due to Rising Energy Prices

Thursday, 19 March 2026, written by Edward Markus

Developments in the Middle East are likely to have the greatest impact on the currency markets for the time being. The markets expect the conflict to end soon and for energy prices to fall again thereafter. We are less certain of this for several reasons. What does this mean for major exchange rates?

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Previous reports

Dollar regains safe haven status

Thursday, 05 March 2026

Geopolitical risk is pushing up energy prices — and that is changing FX dynamics. In this update, we show why the dollar is once again becoming the preferred safe haven, how higher energy prices are limiting central banks' room for manoeuvre, and what this means for the major currency pairs in the coming months.

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Will the negative effects of AI also affect currency markets?

Thursday, 19 February 2026

There are several forces at play that could have a significant positive or negative impact on the US currency, including developments in AI. In this currency report, we examine what these forces are and what they mean for EUR/USD, among other things.

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The crucial role of productivity growth for currency markets

Thursday, 05 February 2026

If productivity growth continue to rise, central banks will have much more latitude to cut interest rates, particularly in the US. This would be negative for the dollar. However, this is not our most likely scenario...

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