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Tactical Asset Allocation

Lower growth opens the door to a final bullish phase

Wednesday, 26 February 2025, written by Maarten Spek

The sharp increase in geopolitical uncertainties, a stagnating European economy, and slowing US economic growth could be seen as a brewing storm threatening highly valued US stock prices. However, we believe slowing growth will lead to increased expectations of monetary stimulus, putting upward pressure on asset prices before a potential storm arrives later this year. As a result, we are adjusting several tactical asset allocations this month.

This report is published: Monthly

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Previous reports

A DeepSeek end to US exceptionalism?

Wednesday, 29 January 2025

Most analysts expect the era of US exceptionalism – meaning relatively high US economic growth and US stock market outperformance – to continue. We beg to differ, as we explain in this month’s Tactical Asset Allocation. However, this doesn’t mean it’s time to underweigh equity just yet…

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Trump's poker game

Monday, 16 December 2024

After Trump’s inauguration, a high stakes poker game will begin between de economic super powers. How Europe and China will respond to Trump’s bet will play a decisive role in the tactical asset allocation decisions.

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First-round and second-round effects of Trump’s policies

Wednesday, 27 November 2024

Trump has a clear strategy for the US economy, which could push up growth and inflation in the short-term but will likely lead to deflationary pressures in the medium term. For China and Europe, we expect the reverse. In this Tactical Asset Allocation update, we discuss the drivers for these developments and how Trump’s policies will affect the asset allocation.

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A word from the author

"In this report I answer the question How would ECR invest? We express our views by indicating exactly how much we want to underweight or overweight each asset class relative to the Strategic Asset Allocation. The approach is fundamental and chart-technical combined with valuation metrics. It is a bridge between our mid-term macro views and your tactical asset allocation decisions. I'm always pleased to hear readers tell me it's been an  invaluable resource for their investment committee meetings as it provides a comprehensive insight and guidance in team their discussions. This is exactly what we want to achieve with this report"

 

 

 

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