Investors seem to believe in a Goldilocks scenario — steady growth, easing inflation, and supportive liquidity. Yet, while markets brush aside concerns like the government shutdown and trade tensions, more fundamental risks are quietly building. Liquidity can change course abruptly, as last week’s sharp drop in precious metals reminded us. We adjust our tactical asset allocation to reflect a short-term bullish stance amid rapidly rising risks.
In this months’ Tactical Asset Allocation report we explore whether AI related stocks are forming a bubble, the crucial role long-term rates are playing and what this means for the stock market outlook and tactical asset allocation in general. We also discuss three alternative scenarios to our base case.
Is the Fed breathing new life into the bull market?
Wednesday, 27 August 2025
A bubble is brewing in equity and corporate bond markets. How far it inflates hinges on the battle between looser monetary policy and rising long-term interest rates.
Despite all the economic and political concerns, the trend for equities is upward and that for credit spreads is downward. What are the reasons for this and how long will the markets continue to climb the proverbial “wall of worry”?
