Markets act as if tariffs, trade uncertainty, and fiscal worries are in the rear-view mirror, while the windshield shows fiscal easing, Fed rate cuts, and AI-driven profits. We disagree, expecting major obstacles to make the ride bumpy for investors, and position our tactical asset allocation accordingly.
After a V-shaped recovery, will major stock markets climb a 'wall of worry' as in 2021, or are we on the brink of a 2000-2001-style decline? We explore whether long-term rates will hit new highs and how this shapes tactical asset allocation.
The next hurdle for financial markets: recession fears
Monday, 28 April 2025
A weaker dollar makes higher import tariffs feel like a tax hike for the U.S. economy. For financial markets, tariffs pack a harsher punch than a tax increase, risking sharp declines in asset prices. While market turmoil might push Trump to dial back trade tensions further, relief could be fleeting as recession fears are creeping in. Unlock the insights in our report to navigate this stormy economic landscape.
The stagflationary effect of higher import tariffs
Wednesday, 26 March 2025
Higher U.S. import tariffs aim to boost domestic production, promising economic growth and lower consumer prices. Yet, emerging trends suggest the opposite: tariffs may drive up costs for consumers, stall growth in the coming months, and, in the worst case, spark a trade war that could tip the economy into recession. While a global downturn isn’t imminent, we’re adjusting our asset allocation to navigate the rising uncertainty ahead.
