Previous Reports
Is the end of the bull market in sight?
Significant profit growth, the limited impact of high oil prices on growth so far, and enthusiasm for AI are keeping an ageing bull market afloat. But how much longer can it last, what are the possible reasons for a trend reversal, and what does this mean for tactical asset allocation decisions?
Beware of the concentration risks
The markets are looking past the oil crisis, but we believe investors are placing too much faith in a swift return to normality in the Middle East. As long as profit forecasts continue to rise, the bull market may continue, but risks are piling up: physical oil shortages, private debt stress, AI concentration and high valuations, among others. Are investors in for a nasty surprise?
A new macroeconomic framework for asset allocation
The war in the Middle East is driving a fundamental shift from efficiency toward certainty. The result: higher interest rates, slower earnings growth, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and a changed central bank response to economic downturns. The consequences for financial markets and tactical asset allocation are substantial.
