The consensus expectation is that shares will have another good year and monetary policy will be further loosened. This underestimates several risks that could undermine many of the pillars supporting economic growth and the stock markets. In this final asset allocation report of the year, we answer the question of what this means for the outlook for asset prices and tactical asset allocation.
AI-bubble fears are rising, yet current valuations remain well below dot-com levels. A bigger — and far less discussed — market driver for 2026 may be government policy. This month’s Tactical Asset Allocation explains why, and what it means for investors.
Investors seem to believe in a Goldilocks scenario — steady growth, easing inflation, and supportive liquidity. Yet, while markets brush aside concerns like the government shutdown and trade tensions, more fundamental risks are quietly building. Liquidity can change course abruptly, as last week’s sharp drop in precious metals reminded us. We adjust our tactical asset allocation to reflect a short-term bullish stance amid rapidly rising risks.
In this months’ Tactical Asset Allocation report we explore whether AI related stocks are forming a bubble, the crucial role long-term rates are playing and what this means for the stock market outlook and tactical asset allocation in general. We also discuss three alternative scenarios to our base case.
