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Tactical Asset Allocation

This cycle it’s different

Wednesday, 30 October 2024, written by Maarten Spek

“This time it is different” may be the five most dangerous words in investing, but this time the economic cycle is really unusual as equities and the economy seem indifferent to higher interest rates. This publication explores why this is the case, how long it could last and how it affects our tactical asset allocation. 

This report is published: Monthly

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Previous reports

Monetary fuel for equity markets

Wednesday, 25 September 2024

The recent decline of oil prices, the dollar and long-term rates bodes well for economic growth. This is reinforced by monetary easing by the US and Chinese central banks. Is this the all clear signal for an outperformance of risky asset prices for the remainder of the year?

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Buy the dip until the tipping point

Wednesday, 28 August 2024

Asset prices are benefitting from the tailwinds of the expectations of multiple rate cuts and a soft landing. Still, a cautious approach is warranted amidst high valuations and levels of investor optimism. Furthermore, a further weakening of US growth could push the economy beyond a point where a recession is unavoidable and rate cuts won’t boost asset prices..

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Interim Tactical Asset Allocation

Monday, 05 August 2024

There are a number of reasons why this risk-off phase presents an attractive opportunity to increase the allocation to riskier assets, provided the S&P 500 remains above support around 4950...

Read more

A word from the author

"In this report I answer the question How would ECR invest? We express our views by indicating exactly how much we want to underweight or overweight each asset class relative to the Strategic Asset Allocation. The approach is fundamental and chart-technical combined with valuation metrics. It is a bridge between our mid-term macro views and your tactical asset allocation decisions. I'm always pleased to hear readers tell me it's been an  invaluable resource for their investment committee meetings as it provides a comprehensive insight and guidance in team their discussions. This is exactly what we want to achieve with this report"

 

 

 

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