Markets act as if tariffs, trade uncertainty, and fiscal worries are in the rear-view mirror, while the windshield shows fiscal easing, Fed rate cuts, and AI-driven profits. We disagree, expecting major obstacles to make the ride bumpy for investors, and position our tactical asset allocation accordingly.

The U.S. is entangled in an implicit currency union with Asia, with mounting economic drawbacks. Trump's push to address this is constrained by China's control over the USD/CNY exchange rate, and his limited tools are creating their own economic fallout. Meanwhile, China faces growing incentives to revalue the yuan, increasing pressure for a free-floating USD/CNY. How will this seismic shift reshape financial markets over the next decade?

Authoritative institutions such as the OECD are lowering their growth forecasts for the economy and especially for the U.S. economy. Normally, weaker growth leads to a decent drop in interest rates, but a number of structural factors make another scenario for interest rates more likely..