Trump’s policies are shaking the safe haven status of U.S. government bonds, driving unprecedented volatility in capital market yields. While long-term yields have held steady recently, we foresee a shift in the coming months due to pivotal structural and cyclical trends. Want to know what’s next? Dive into our report.
 

With his erratic import tariff policies, Trump sows uncertainty. The initial yield is lower interest rates, but later harvests will leave a bitter taste, significantly shaking up U.S. and European interest rate markets in the second half of this year.

Higher U.S. import tariffs aim to boost domestic production, promising economic growth and lower consumer prices. Yet, emerging trends suggest the opposite: tariffs may drive up costs for consumers, stall growth in the coming months, and, in the worst case, spark a trade war that could tip the economy into recession. While a global downturn isn’t imminent, we’re adjusting our asset allocation to navigate the rising uncertainty ahead.