Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plays a crucial role in an investors’ decision-making process. This report features the quarterly update of three SAA models, their portfolio characteristics and the (proprietary) data we have used to construct the SAA models. In addition, we update the Expected Returns based on the return assumptions of approx. 70 asset managers and present tables with volatility and correlation data for every asset class.

Investors appear convinced that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen fully to oil and gas tankers. Energy prices may then fall further, but that does not automatically mean that the risk of inflation has passed and that central banks can cut interest rates. In this report, we discuss the reasons for this and what it means for European and US interest rates.

Expectations of a swift end to the war in Iran may put further downward pressure on interest rates in the short term, but beneath the surface, structural forces are paving the way for a new phase of rising rates. What does this mean for central bank policy and US and European long-term interest rates?