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Global Financial Markets

A soft landing, with runaway public finances

Thursday, 16 May 2024, written by Eddy Markus

There are signs that U.S. growth is slowing and the labor market is loosening. For many, this is the sign that high interest rates are finally doing their job and that from now on growth will slow down. Then inflation and interest rates may also fall (further). However, we expect all this to happen more slowly than generally expected. Does this also mean that our expectations for the financial markets differ greatly from the consensus?

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Previous reports

Tighter monetary conditions should limit growth

Friday, 03 May 2024

Recently, markets have significantly adjusted their interest rate expectations due to higher-than-expected growth and inflation. Does this mean that we also have to adjust our predictions for, among other things, interest rates and EUR/USD?

Knock-on effects

Thursday, 18 April 2024

Central banks believe that maintaining current interest rate levels will sufficiently slow the economy to further reduce inflation, enabling interest rate cuts later this year. However, investor doubts, particularly concerning the Fed, are growing. This means increased upward pressure on U.S. interest rates and the dollar, posing additional challenges for countries with weak currencies and heightening the risk of currency interventions and greater volatility in financial markets.

If a recession does not follow, what will?

Thursday, 04 April 2024

U.S. economic data remain quite good and upward pressure on inflation appears to increase. Therefore, the Fed will remain cautious about rate cuts this year, and long-term interest rates may continue to rise in the near term. We see this as the prelude to a stock market correction and more downward pressure on economic growth.

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