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Subject:

Global Financial Markets

Lower interest rates – and why we have our doubts

Monday, 11 August 2025, written by Edward Markus

Trade tariffs, interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions grip markets. Discover in our combined GFM, currency and gold report why we expect fewer rate cuts than the market, what this means for the euro, dollar and gold, and where today’s opportunities and risks lie.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Stock markets still in uptrend, though many experts are sceptical

Thursday, 24 July 2025

Underlying U.S. economic data is weakening, increasing the risk of a recession. However, the Fed is holding off on intervention, as importers could soon decide to pass on import tariffs to consumers. How do we assess the recession risks, and what are the implications for our expectations for the financial markets?
 

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At the root of it all: excessive public debt

Thursday, 10 July 2025

The elevated risk of trade wars, ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased political pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates have a common cause; the sharply deteriorating outlook for public finances. Solutions to this exist, but are very difficult politically. Therefore, short-term solutions will mainly be sought that will set the scene for financial markets for some time to come. What can we expect in the coming quarters?

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Market movements coming to an end

Thursday, 26 June 2025

Various forces are currently pressuring the dollar, interest rates, and gold prices downward, while supporting elevated stock prices. This trend may persist in the short term, but we expect a reversal soon due to several factors.

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