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Subject:

Global Financial Markets

Fears of a recession

Thursday, 01 May 2025, written by Edward Markus

Political and economic uncertainty reigns supreme. Markets grapple with critical questions: Will Washington seal major trade deals? Are America and Europe headed for recession? Will Congress slash taxes? Can central banks counter faltering growth? Our expectations challenge the market’s view on many of these issues.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Monetary policy cannot offset the negative effects of uncertainty

Wednesday, 16 April 2025

Trump’s erratic import tariff policies are fueling uncertainty, slowing the US economy and raising the risk of a recession. Meanwhile, Europe benefits from capital inflows from the US and strong fiscal stimulus, making a recession there unlikely. Dive into our report to see how these shifts are reshaping the global economic landscape and how China fits into this.

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Economies suffer significant damage from uncertainty

Thursday, 03 April 2025

We believe Trump’s import tariffs will become more permanent and worry about a significant time lag between these tariffs and lower taxes. Combined with lingering uncertainty, this creates an extremely vulnerable situation for the economy and stock markets.

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Will the markets force Trump to change course?

Thursday, 20 March 2025

Political and economic uncertainty are growing by leaps and bounds. As a result, consumers and businesses are postponing spending and investments. Are we entering a period of a full-scale trade war, sharply declining growth, and pain in the stock markets, or will Trump change course, bringing back calm and optimism?

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