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Global Financial Markets

A Turning Point on the Horizon?

Thursday, 30 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

The stock markets and the economy have been running on credit: companies are borrowing heavily to invest in AI, while investors increasingly buy shares with borrowed money, driving prices even higher. The resulting rise in share values then serves as collateral for loans used throughout the economy. As long as oil prices and inflation keep rising and central banks are forced to raise interest rates, this self-reinforcing mechanism becomes increasingly vulnerable, at a time when monetary and fiscal policy have little room left to intervene. In this report, we explain why this risk is underestimated and what this means for key interest rates, exchange rates, and equity price movements.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Interest rates set to rise significantly in the long term

Thursday, 16 July 2026

The tightness in the market for oil products (diesel, petrol) is greater than the prices of Brent and WTI would suggest. This also means that the inflationary risks associated with a closure of the Strait of Hormuz are greater, and this, in turn, will play a major role in central banks’ interest rate policy. In this report, we explain why this is the case and what it means for key interest rates, exchange rates and equity prices. 

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Inflation, stagflation or deflation

Thursday, 02 July 2026

It is striking how differently economists and analysts view the implications of the Iran deal and the rise of AI for economic growth and inflation. If we look at the charts for gold, the yield curve, the S&P 500 and the dollar index, the markets’ expectations are quite clear. In this report, we examine what these market expectations are, how we view them, what role China’s rise plays in this context, and what this means for key interest rates and exchange rates.
 

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Oil prices fall, but the risk of inflation remains

Thursday, 18 June 2026

Following the deal between Iran and the US, energy prices have fallen and a major risk factor is now behind investors. Does this clear the way for falling inflation and further rising share prices, or will the Fed put new obstacles in the way in the form of higher interest rates?

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Eddy's Weekly Market Insight

Friday, 24 July 2026

Eddy's Weekly Market Insight

Rising energy prices and intrest rates leave the euro vulnerable : It does not look like the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened for free passage anytime soon. Meanwhile, global oil inventories have declined considerably, which would normally suggest a rapid rise in oil prices. Until recently, however, that increase remained limited, likely because demand for oil has fallen as well. Last week we noted that this is partly linked to the destruction of refineries in Russia and the Gulf states, but other factors are also at play. The release of national oil reserves and the normal market response to higher prices — more supply and less demand — are likewise having a dampening effect. Even so...
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— Edward Markus, Founder & Chief Economist