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Global Financial Markets

What does war in the Middle East mean for the markets?

Monday, 02 March 2026, written by Edward Markus

The war in Iran is putting pressure on energy prices, inflation expectations, and central banks. Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open? Should we expect interest rate hikes rather than cuts? And what does this mean for the S&P 500, government bonds, and EUR/USD? This report outlines the market impact of the Iran war in an environment of ongoing uncertainty.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Markets face exceptional uncertainty

Thursday, 26 February 2026

The risks for financial markets continue to mount, with considerable uncertainty surrounding trade policy (with possibly even a currency war), the macroeconomic impact of AI, and geopolitics (including Iran). How do we see these three risks playing out, and what will be the consequences for the markets?
 

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Trump predicts 15% economic growth

Thursday, 12 February 2026

Markets seem to be discounting the scenario that the Fed will continue to stimulate growth with lower interest rates, while wage increases and inflation remain limited. We have serious doubts about this.

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What does a changing world order mean for financial markets?

Thursday, 29 January 2026

Markets are pricing in a near-perfect outcome, while structural risks are building. Geopolitical shifts, pressure on the Fed’s independence and uncertain productivity gains challenge current valuations. This report explains where the fault lines lie.

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Eddy's Weekly Market Insight

Friday, 06 March 2026

Eddy's Weekly Market Insight

Excessive Optimism: European equities declined over the past week, while the S&P 500 remains roughly at the same level as before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. The relatively stronger performance of U.S. equities over the past week is understandable to some extent. Oil prices have risen sharply, and the United States is largely self-sufficient in energy, whereas Europe relies heavily on imported oil and gas. The question, however, is why U.S. equities have not declined at all. Several explanations may account for this:
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— Edward Markus, Founder & Chief Economist