Global Financial Markets

Diverging Interest Rate Outlooks in the U.S. and Europe: When the conflict in the Middle East erupted, several assumptions quickly gained broad acceptance: If the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed for several months, oil prices would continue to rise sharply as genuine physical supply shortages emerged. Under this scenario, many analysts projected oil prices could reach between $150 and $200 per barrel. Rising oil prices would fuel inflation and, consequently, lead to higher interest rates. At the same time, economic growth would slow significantly, prompting increasing discussion of stagflation. However, market sentiment gradually shifted. More investors came to believe that neither the United States nor Iran had an interest in prolonging the conflict indefinitely, leading to expectations of a near-term agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices initially surged to approximately $130 per barrel before retreating to around $95. A key factor now coming into focus is that many experts continue to predict that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more weeks or months, physical supply shortages will eventually emerge, pushing oil prices substantially higher. By extension, this would also place upward pressure on interest rates. It increasingly appears that an agreement between the United States and Iran is becoming less likely, suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed to commercial shipping for some time. Under such circumstances, a renewed increase in oil prices—and consequently interest rates—would seem entirely plausible. Yet this has not occurred so far. In fact, oil prices have declined slightly. Does this mean that experts have once again misjudged the timing of potential supply shortages?