Skip to main content
Subject:

Global Financial Markets

A different kind of crisis than in the past

Thursday, 09 April 2026, written by Edward Markus

For now, the economic damage caused by the war in Iran appears to be manageable as long as oil prices remain below $120 per barrel. Above that level, the consequences could quickly become more severe. But will the ceasefire lead to a lasting agreement? And what other factors are currently driving the direction of currencies, interest rates, and shares?

This report is published: Bi-weekly

Get access to this report

Request Report

Previous reports

Is “buy the dips” still the right strategy?

Thursday, 26 March 2026

“Buy the dip” has been the dominant strategy for years. But with geopolitical risk skyrocketing, booming energy prices, inflation risks returning and policy flexibility shrinking, that assumption may no longer hold. This report explains why and what it means for equities, EUR/USD and interest rates, among others.

Request Report

TACO Trump

Thursday, 12 March 2026

Will the Iran war force the ECB and Fed to shift their monetary policy due to higher inflation and slowing growth?

Request Report

What does war in the Middle East mean for the markets?

Monday, 02 March 2026

The war in Iran is putting pressure on energy prices, inflation expectations, and central banks. Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open? Should we expect interest rate hikes rather than cuts? And what does this mean for the S&P 500, government bonds, and EUR/USD? This report outlines the market impact of the Iran war in an environment of ongoing uncertainty.

Request Report

Eddy's Weekly Market Insight

Friday, 17 April 2026

Eddy´s Weekly Market Insight

Post-War Inflation: According to Trump, the conflict in the Middle East will come to an end soon. At a minimum, this would imply an agreement regarding Iran’s enriched uranium and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Financial markets appear to be taking Trump at his word, as evidenced by declining prices for oil, gas, helium, and fertilizers. However, markets also recognize that production and transportation of these commodities cannot be restored overnight and will require time. Assuming this process takes several months, markets seem willing to look through the short-term disruption. We are less convinced that developments will unfold so smoothly. While it is clear that Trump aims to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion, the key question is...
Continue reading
— Edward Markus, Founder & Chief Economist