Global Financial Markets

S&P 500 Index: 8,000 or 6,000? Although hostilities in the Middle East have largely subsided, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is highly significant for oil prices. Supply is restricted, as approximately 20% of global oil and gas flows transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which has now been closed for some time. It is therefore understandable that oil prices initially fell sharply when fighting eased, only to rebound soon after. A similar pattern has been observed in helium and fertilizers. What is notable, however, is that equity markets have largely shrugged off these rising prices, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. This is counterintuitive, as economists argue that higher prices for oil, gas, helium, and fertilizers should lead to increased inflation, higher interest rates, and slower economic growth—factors that are typically negative for both corporate earnings and price-earnings ratios for shares. Why, then, do equity markets continue to rise, and can this trend be sustained?