Markets are pricing in a benign outcome, but three key uncertainties threaten that consensus. Geopolitical escalation, political interference in monetary policy, and disappointing productivity growth could rapidly change the outlook. This report examines how these risks could reshape markets.

Although the long-term outlook for gold and silver remains positive due to rising geopolitical rivalry, the bullish consensus around the precious metals is currently very high, which suggests that the rally is on borrowed time. Is a price correction ahead?

We expect increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties will have a growing impact on currency markets. The dollar appears vulnerable, but it could benefit if Trump gets his way and the US takes over Greenland. The yen is also vulnerable, while geopolitical unrest could have a positive effect on the pound. You can read what all this means in concrete terms for the most important FX rates in this currency report.