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Interest Rates Outlook

Peace in the Middle East doesn’t mean the risk of rising rates disappears

Wednesday, 15 April 2026, written by Maarten Spek

Investors appear convinced that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen fully to oil and gas tankers. Energy prices may then fall further, but that does not automatically mean that the risk of inflation has passed and that central banks can cut interest rates. In this report, we discuss the reasons for this and what it means for European and US interest rates.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

The Domino Effect of the Iran War on Interest Rate Markets

Wednesday, 01 April 2026

Expectations of a swift end to the war in Iran may put further downward pressure on interest rates in the short term, but beneath the surface, structural forces are paving the way for a new phase of rising rates. What does this mean for central bank policy and US and European long-term interest rates?

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Markets are pricing in too many ECB rate hikes

Wednesday, 18 March 2026

The war in the Middle East presents bond markets, central banks and investors with a new dilemma: is this a temporary energy shock, or the start of yet another period of persistent inflation?

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War in Iran increases inflation concerns

Wednesday, 04 March 2026

The war in Iran is driving up oil prices and uncertainty is elevated. However, the bond market is reacting differently than it did during previous geopolitical shocks. Why? And what does this mean for the interest rate policy of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England?

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