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Subject:

Interest Rates Outlook

Mounting pressure on the ECB to provide sharp rate cuts

Monday, 09 December 2024, written by Maarten Spek

The economic differences between the U.S. and Europe are large and will remain so, or will even widen, early next year. What does this mean for European and U.S. interest rates in general and 2- and 5-year IRS swap rates in particular?

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Widening interest rate differentials between Europe and the US

Monday, 25 November 2024

Trump's victory has widened the gap between US and European long-term interest rates. Next year, however, we expect a number of developments that could take the sharp edges off Trumps’ policies and improve the outlook for the European economy. In this report, we elaborate on what it means for the outlook for Fed and ECB policy and long-term interest rates.
 

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Trump creates new reality for interest rate markets

Monday, 11 November 2024

With a large voter mandate, Trump will implement many of his economic plans such as higher import tariffs and tax cuts. This will invoke reprisals from Europe and China. Thereby, Trump will create a new reality for central banks and bond markets. What does this mean for European and US interest rates?

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Central bank interest rates fall, long-term interest rates rise

Monday, 28 October 2024

Central banks are signaling their intention to cut interest rates further. Yet, long-term interest rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. How can this be explained and will this rise continue?
 

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions