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Interest Rates Outlook

The ECB has bigger concerns than the Fed

Monday, 19 February 2024, written by Maarten Spek

The supply side of the economy is stagnating in Europe but growing in the US. This makes it easier for the Fed to get inflation under control without a sharp economic slowdown. In this report, we disc...

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

The US economy continues to do well, exceeding expectations

Monday, 05 February 2024

Much better-than-expected U.S. labor market data reinforce the Fed's message to markets that the U.S. central bank intends to cut interest rates less quickly than markets expect...

Baby boomers, deglobalisation and public deficits decisive for the trend in long-term interest rates

Monday, 22 January 2024

Long-term interest rates have started an uptrend in 2020. We expect a continuation in the coming years. However, rates are now in a downward correction that we see persisting this year.

Investors are pricing in too many rate cuts this year

Monday, 15 January 2024

The latest US economic figures indicate that the labor market is still tight and that the economy continues to grow. With elections coming up this year, the U.S. government will want to do all it can to stimulate the economy. Against this background, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates less quickly in the coming quarters than is currently being discounted

Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

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