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Subject:

Interest Rates Outlook

Uncertainty is the Achilles heel of Trump’s policies

Monday, 17 March 2025, written by Edward Markus

The outlook for the US economy has worsened while it has improved for Europe due to more fiscal stimulus. This may change in early April, when the U.S. imposes higher import tariffs on European goods as well, with potentially major implications for European interest rates.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Lower interest rates due to mounting uncertainty

Monday, 03 March 2025

US government policy actions are depressing growth in the short term but will boost the economy later this year. How will the Fed respond and what does this mean for long-term interest rates?
 

English Nederlands

Downward correction or trend reversal?

Monday, 17 February 2025

Is the recent decline in long-term interest rates a downward correction within the upward trend, or are we in the middle of a trend reversal?

English Nederlands

Trump's first step towards a trade war

Monday, 03 February 2025

The US is significantly increasing import tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese goods. What is the impact of this on the economy and what does it mean for the outlook for short-term and long-term interest rates in Europe and the US?

English Nederlands

Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions