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Subject:

Interest Rates Outlook

Downward correction or trend reversal?

Monday, 17 February 2025, written by Maarten Spek

Is the recent decline in long-term interest rates a downward correction within the upward trend, or are we in the middle of a trend reversal?

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Trump's first step towards a trade war

Monday, 03 February 2025

The US is significantly increasing import tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese goods. What is the impact of this on the economy and what does it mean for the outlook for short-term and long-term interest rates in Europe and the US?

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Trump’s policies will increase the upside potential for US interest rates

Monday, 20 January 2025

Many of Trump's economic plans cause more upward pressure on inflation and thus U.S. interest rates. However, we doubt this will hold true for the second half of this year....
 

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Divergence and convergence between US and European interest rates

Monday, 06 January 2025

Trump’s policies and stimulus measures in China and Europe will largely determine the direction of interest rates this year. In the first few months this will mainly benefit the U.S. economy and interest rates, but after that we expect a turnaround with European interest rates rising.
 

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions