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Subject:

Interest Rates Outlook

Doubts over the safe-haven status of US government bonds

Monday, 14 April 2025, written by Maarten Spek

Trump’s policies are shaking the safe haven status of U.S. government bonds, driving unprecedented volatility in capital market yields. While long-term yields have held steady recently, we foresee a shift in the coming months due to pivotal structural and cyclical trends. Want to know what’s next? Dive into our report.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Trump sows uncertainty, but what will he reap?

Tuesday, 01 April 2025

With his erratic import tariff policies, Trump sows uncertainty. The initial yield is lower interest rates, but later harvests will leave a bitter taste, significantly shaking up U.S. and European interest rate markets in the second half of this year.

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Uncertainty is the Achilles heel of Trump’s policies

Monday, 17 March 2025

The outlook for the US economy has worsened while it has improved for Europe due to more fiscal stimulus. This may change in early April, when the U.S. imposes higher import tariffs on European goods as well, with potentially major implications for European interest rates.
 

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Lower interest rates due to mounting uncertainty

Monday, 03 March 2025

US government policy actions are depressing growth in the short term but will boost the economy later this year. How will the Fed respond and what does this mean for long-term interest rates?
 

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions