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Interest Rates Outlook

Central bank interest rates fall, long-term interest rates rise

Monday, 28 October 2024, written by Maarten Spek

Central banks are signaling their intention to cut interest rates further. Yet, long-term interest rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. How can this be explained and will this rise continue?
 

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Previous reports

Is the inflation risk being underestimated?

Monday, 14 October 2024

Central banks believe inflation is by and large under control and are focusing more explicitly on stimulating economic growth. This raises the question whether central banks - and markets - are underestimating inflation risks, as several developments could create more upward inflation pressure in the coming quarters. And what does this mean for the interest rate outlook?

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Steeper yield curve because of China

Monday, 30 September 2024

Easier monetary policy and falling oil prices put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. However, sustained US growth and, more importantly, additional economic stimulus in China put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Which forces will prevail and what does this mean concretely for short-term and long-term interest rates?
 

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Two scenarios for interest rates

Monday, 16 September 2024

The amount of rate cuts the markets are now pricing in for the ECB and the Fed is a compromise between a scenario of sustained economic growth and one of increasing recession fears. Which scenario is more likely? The answer will largely determine the course of interest rates in the US and Europe.

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.