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Interest Rates Outlook

Real long-term yields hit new highs

Wednesday, 19 August 2026, written by Edward Markus

Why are long-term interest rates rising while the Fed appears to be raising rates at a slower pace? Our latest interest rate report examines the structural forces behind the steeper yield curve, and outlines the outlook for short- and long-term interest rates in the US and Europe over the coming months and quarters.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Probability of rate hikes has risen sharply

Wednesday, 22 July 2026

Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the shutdown of Russian refineries have recently driven up energy prices and inflation risks. As a result, rate hikes by the ECB and the Fed have become much more likely. However, we are seeing significant differences in the impact of this on European and US capital market interest rates…

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Stoic interest rate markets

Wednesday, 08 July 2026

There is a lot going on on the global stage, while inflation is above target and the economy continues to perform surprisingly well. Although interest rates are reacting to these developments, on balance they remain stable. However, there are a number of factors that could also lead to greater volatility in the interest rate markets in the coming months.
 

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A flatter yield curve due to the Fed’s pivot?

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Following the recent Fed meeting, the US yield curve has flattened further, bringing an inverted yield curve closer – a development that has often served as a warning sign of recession in the past. In this report, we examine whether this is the case again and set out our specific forecasts for US and European short- and long-term yields for the coming months to quarters.

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

 

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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