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Interest Rates Outlook

Withdrawal of Excess Cash

Thursday, 29 October 2026, written by Maarten Spek

The widening of the yield spread between French and German government bonds, the rise in credit spreads and the recent fall in long-term yields are all interlinked. In this report, we analyse the nature of these links, the outlook for the coming months and quarters, and what this means for key European and US interest rates.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

US mid-term elections could have a major impact on oil and bond markets

Wednesday, 14 October 2026

We view the recent decline in interest rates as part of a downward correction. On balance, interest rates are likely to increase further because the factors responsible for the rise in rates have not abated and government bonds have become riskier. The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections could set off developments that trigger the next phase of rising interest rates.

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Markets are too enthusiastic about pricing in rate hikes

Wednesday, 30 September 2026

For central banks, the reasons to raise interest rates further are mounting. The markets are pricing in several more rate hikes through the end of 2027. However, there are also good reasons why central banks should exercise caution. In this report, we outline all the reasons and our specific expectations for European and U.S. market interest rates.
 

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Oil markets are forcing rate hikes

Thursday, 17 September 2026

Rising energy prices represent a classic negative supply shock to the economy, but there are a number of reasons why the major central banks should set aside their standard response to such shocks. This has major implications not only for asset prices but also for economic growth. In this interest rate report, we discuss what this means for European and U.S. interest rates.

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

 

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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