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Interest Rates Outlook

A bag of government tricks

Wednesday, 26 November 2025, written by Maarten Spek

High public debt, an aging population, increased geopolitical risks, and rising interest rates have led to a bleak outlook for public finances. There is a lack of political will to do anything about this. In fact, pressure to further relax fiscal policy is mounting. As a result, government bond investors are demanding higher interest rates. But governments still have a bag of tricks up their sleeves to postpone painful measures. Later in this report, we will discuss whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

End of shutdown does not mean end of uncertainty

Wednesday, 12 November 2025

Uncertainty remains high. Due to the historically long shutdown, the availability and reliability of US economic data will remain an issue in the coming weeks. This may lead central banks to adopt a wait-and-see stance, with the 2026 outlook playing a more important role in European and US interest rate markets.

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Shutdown and uncertainty about the US economy

Wednesday, 29 October 2025

While the Fed is likely to cut interest rates further, we expect the focus to shift quickly to higher growth and more upward pressure on inflation. That means rising long-term interest rates and a turning point for investors who are still betting on falling long-term yields.

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Miscalculation by the Fed

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

The Fed is set to further ease monetary policy due to concerns about the weakening labour market and political pressure. The assumption is that the current interest rate is having a dampening effect on the economy. But is that really the case, and what are the consequences if, in hindsight, the Fed lowers interest rates too much?

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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