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Interest Rates Outlook

A great deal of movement, little direction

Monday, 10 June 2024, written by Maarten Spek

Fickle data on the U.S. economy and labor market and increasing political uncertainty have caused wide fluctuations in U.S. and European long-term interest rates, but on balance the market is moving sideways. However, we expect the latter to change...

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Short-term interest rates are slowing the economy less, long-term interest rates have less downside potential

Monday, 27 May 2024

We expect less declines in U.S. and European long-term interest rates in the coming quarters than we have indicated in previous interest rate reports. However, we do continue to expect the ECB and Fed to cut interest rates several times in the coming quarters as a result of more downward pressure on inflation....

 

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Risk of policy mistake increases

Monday, 13 May 2024

Before starting a rate cutting cycle, the ECB and the Fed first want assurances that inflation has resumed the downward trend. This increases risks of a policy mistake by both central banks…

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Data dependent

Monday, 29 April 2024

Structural factors continue to exert more upward pressure on inflation compared to the years before the corona crisis. This complicates the work of central banks. Can they lower interest rates substantially in this climate?

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

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