Interest Rates Outlook

Easier monetary policy and falling oil prices put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. However, sustained US growth and, more importantly, additional economic stimulus in China put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Which forces will prevail and what does this mean concretely for short-term and long-term interest rates?
 

The amount of rate cuts the markets are now pricing in for the ECB and the Fed is a compromise between a scenario of sustained economic growth and one of increasing recession fears. Which scenario is more likely? The answer will largely determine the course of interest rates in the US and Europe.

Investors assume that the Fed will cut interest rates by around eight times until the end of next year. However, as long as economic data continue to point to continuing or even strengthening economic growth and US election uncertainty remains high, there is a growing risk that investors will have to discount less rate cuts...