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Interest Rates Outlook

Markets are too enthusiastic about pricing in rate hikes

Wednesday, 30 September 2026, written by Maarten Spek

For central banks, the reasons to raise interest rates further are mounting. The markets are pricing in several more rate hikes through the end of 2027. However, there are also good reasons why central banks should exercise caution. In this report, we outline all the reasons and our specific expectations for European and U.S. market interest rates.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Oil markets are forcing rate hikes

Thursday, 17 September 2026

Rising energy prices represent a classic negative supply shock to the economy, but there are a number of reasons why the major central banks should set aside their standard response to such shocks. This has major implications not only for asset prices but also for economic growth. In this interest rate report, we discuss what this means for European and U.S. interest rates.

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September: the month of rate hikes

Wednesday, 02 September 2026

The central banks in the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone are likely to raise interest rates this month. In doing so, the Fed must still take into account a possible clash between Warsh and Bessent, while the ECB faces a triple stagflationary threat consisting of higher energy prices, drought, and growing political uncertainty. In this report, we explain why this is happening and what it specifically means for European and U.S. interest rates (EURIBOR, SOFR, and Swap rates).

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Real long-term yields hit new highs

Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Why are long-term interest rates rising while the Fed appears to be raising rates at a slower pace? Our latest interest rate report examines the structural forces behind the steeper yield curve, and outlines the outlook for short- and long-term interest rates in the US and Europe over the coming months and quarters.

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

 

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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