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Interest Rates Outlook

Trump creates new reality for interest rate markets

Monday, 11 November 2024, written by Maarten Spek

With a large voter mandate, Trump will implement many of his economic plans such as higher import tariffs and tax cuts. This will invoke reprisals from Europe and China. Thereby, Trump will create a new reality for central banks and bond markets. What does this mean for European and US interest rates?

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Central bank interest rates fall, long-term interest rates rise

Monday, 28 October 2024

Central banks are signaling their intention to cut interest rates further. Yet, long-term interest rates have risen sharply in recent weeks. How can this be explained and will this rise continue?
 

English Nederlands

Is the inflation risk being underestimated?

Monday, 14 October 2024

Central banks believe inflation is by and large under control and are focusing more explicitly on stimulating economic growth. This raises the question whether central banks - and markets - are underestimating inflation risks, as several developments could create more upward inflation pressure in the coming quarters. And what does this mean for the interest rate outlook?

English Nederlands

Steeper yield curve because of China

Monday, 30 September 2024

Easier monetary policy and falling oil prices put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. However, sustained US growth and, more importantly, additional economic stimulus in China put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Which forces will prevail and what does this mean concretely for short-term and long-term interest rates?
 

English Nederlands
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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions