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Interest Rates Outlook

A flatter yield curve due to the Fed’s pivot?

Wednesday, 24 June 2026, written by Maarten Spek

Following the recent Fed meeting, the US yield curve has flattened further, bringing an inverted yield curve closer – a development that has often served as a warning sign of recession in the past. In this report, we examine whether this is the case again and set out our specific forecasts for US and European short- and long-term yields for the coming months to quarters.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

The Economic Implications of Higher Real Interest Rates

Wednesday, 10 June 2026

Real interest rates are rising alongside nominal rates. In the past, this was often a sign of stronger growth, as higher real interest rates were driven by companies borrowing more to invest. Now, however, other factors are also at play, and a further rise in real interest rates could set in motion a negative spiral that could have a significant impact on both short-term and long-term interest rates.

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The Fed risks falling behind the curve

Wednesday, 27 May 2026

The rise in long-term interest rates over the past period has been driven not only by higher energy prices but also by concerns over public finances and increased demand for capital. In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon (which is by no means certain), we therefore do not expect long-term interest rates to fall to the lows seen just before the Iran War.

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Potential Fed rate hikes may be greater than markets are currently pricing in

Tuesday, 12 May 2026

Two forces are dominating the bond markets: Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and unabated enthusiasm for AI. Both point toward higher long-term interest rates. However, for short-term interest rates, we expect a scenario quite different from what the markets are currently pricing in.

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.

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