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Subject:

Interest Rates Outlook

How long will the Fed resist political pressure?

Monday, 07 July 2025, written by Eddy Markus

For now, the Fed is resisting increasing political pressure to cut interest rates quickly. Why is the Fed doing this, what developments might change the US central bank's mind and what does all this mean for U.S. interest rates?
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Fed and bond markets in wait-and-see mode

Monday, 23 June 2025

US and European interest rate markets have gone sideways within a fairly wide range recently. How long will that last?
 

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Temporary decline in interest rates due to weaker growth

Tuesday, 10 June 2025

Authoritative institutions such as the OECD are lowering their growth forecasts for the economy and especially for the U.S. economy. Normally, weaker growth leads to a decent drop in interest rates, but a number of structural factors make another scenario for interest rates more likely..

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Temporary US-China trade deal limits scope for Fed rate cuts

Wednesday, 14 May 2025

The temporary China-U.S. trade deal has sparked market optimism, but it’s too soon to dismiss import tariffs as a key factor in growth outlooks, keeping interest rate market volatility elevated.

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions