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Subject:

Interest Rates Outlook

Lower interest rates due to mounting uncertainty

Monday, 03 March 2025, written by Edward Markus

US government policy actions are depressing growth in the short term but will boost the economy later this year. How will the Fed respond and what does this mean for long-term interest rates?
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Downward correction or trend reversal?

Monday, 17 February 2025

Is the recent decline in long-term interest rates a downward correction within the upward trend, or are we in the middle of a trend reversal?

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Trump's first step towards a trade war

Monday, 03 February 2025

The US is significantly increasing import tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese goods. What is the impact of this on the economy and what does it mean for the outlook for short-term and long-term interest rates in Europe and the US?

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Trump’s policies will increase the upside potential for US interest rates

Monday, 20 January 2025

Many of Trump's economic plans cause more upward pressure on inflation and thus U.S. interest rates. However, we doubt this will hold true for the second half of this year....
 

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.

See Past Predictions