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Interest Rates Outlook

Temporary US-China trade deal limits scope for Fed rate cuts

Wednesday, 14 May 2025, written by Eddy Markus

The temporary China-U.S. trade deal has sparked market optimism, but it’s too soon to dismiss import tariffs as a key factor in growth outlooks, keeping interest rate market volatility elevated.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

EUR/USD & GBP hedging perspective

Tuesday, 13 May 2025

The dollar is gaining from lower import tariffs and fading US recession fears, but it's too early to call this the start of a sustained uptrend.

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Temporary US-China trade deal limits scope for Fed rate cuts

Monday, 12 May 2025

The temporary China-U.S. trade deal has sparked market optimism, but it’s too soon to dismiss import tariffs as a key factor in growth outlooks, keeping interest rate market volatility elevated.
 

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Deflationary forces in Europe are increasing

Tuesday, 29 April 2025

There are several reasons why recession fears in the U.S. will increase. At the same time, deflationary pressures are growing in Europe. This means continued downward pressure on long-term interest rates, but we expect a major change in the long-term rates trend in a few months’ time....
 

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Past Predictions

Readers frequently inquire about the accuracy of our predictions and whether we track them. Naturally, we don't possess a crystal ball, and the primary objective of our analyses is to present our readers with the most probable scenarios in the medium term. However, we do provide specific exchange rate predictions and in general they have been quite accurate. 

Below are our forecasts for US and German 10-year government bonds for the period from January to December 2023.