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Interest Rates Outlook

Oil markets are forcing rate hikes

Thursday, 17 September 2026, written by Maarten Spek

Rising energy prices represent a classic negative supply shock to the economy, but there are a number of reasons why the major central banks should set aside their standard response to such shocks. This has major implications not only for asset prices but also for economic growth. In this interest rate report, we discuss what this means for European and U.S. interest rates.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

September: the month of rate hikes

Wednesday, 02 September 2026

The central banks in the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone are likely to raise interest rates this month. In doing so, the Fed must still take into account a possible clash between Warsh and Bessent, while the ECB faces a triple stagflationary threat consisting of higher energy prices, drought, and growing political uncertainty. In this report, we explain why this is happening and what it specifically means for European and U.S. interest rates (EURIBOR, SOFR, and Swap rates).

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Real long-term yields hit new highs

Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Why are long-term interest rates rising while the Fed appears to be raising rates at a slower pace? Our latest interest rate report examines the structural forces behind the steeper yield curve, and outlines the outlook for short- and long-term interest rates in the US and Europe over the coming months and quarters.

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Probability of rate hikes has risen sharply

Wednesday, 22 July 2026

Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the shutdown of Russian refineries have recently driven up energy prices and inflation risks. As a result, rate hikes by the ECB and the Fed have become much more likely. However, we are seeing significant differences in the impact of this on European and US capital market interest rates…

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

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