Research

I’d like to share my commentary on yesterday’s Fed Interest Rate decision: For several weeks now, we have been warning that the U.S. economy might be too strong for the interest rate cuts that the financial markets had priced in until yesterday. We pointed out that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises above 4.45% - 4.5%, it should be considered a red flag. Chart analysis suggests this could signal a further rise to around 5.4%. The 10-year yield has now risen to 4.52%, and if it does not soon fall back toward 4.35%, a breakout to the upside is likely. The question, of course, is what has caused this shift in sentiment. Until recently….