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Strategic Asset Allocation

SAA Special: In AI we trust

Tuesday, 09 December 2025, written by Maarten Spek

This month’s Strategic Asset Allocation Special cuts through the noise: AI stocks are in a classic price bubble—but the bigger risk is the runaway expectations bubble around AI’s macro revolution. We pit the optimists against the sceptics, stress-test the productivity miracle against unrelenting structural drags (ageing populations, geopolitical fragmentation, and trillions in climate capex), and map what this regime shift really means for returns and inflation. If the economic payoff arrives later—or smaller—than the market has priced, the coming correction won’t stop at Big Tech. It will ripple across the entire risk spectrum long before the real productivity gains finally materialise.

This report is published: Quarterly

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Previous reports

SAA Special: Stock market valuations

Monday, 17 November 2025

In this month’s SAA special, we look at stock market valuations and what they indicate for long-term returns. 

US stocks seem to be priced for perfection and valuations are sitting at levels that rarely ended well in the past.

Timing a turn can be very tricky but when valuations are as extreme as they are now, US stocks are very vulnerable to a negative shock such as disappointment about AI related revenues..

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Strategic Asset Allocation Q4 2025

Tuesday, 21 October 2025

Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plays a crucial role in an investors’ decision-making process. This report features the quarterly update of three SAA models, their portfolio characteristics and the data we have used to construct the SAA models. In addition, we update the Expected Returns based on the return assumptions of approx. 70 asset managers and present tables with volatility and correlation data for every asset class.

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SAA Special: Markets at record highs, but structural risks are increasing

Wednesday, 10 September 2025

The US is retreating from the global economic order it once built and safeguarded — the foundation on which growth and asset prices thrived. Looking ahead, this prosperity is under pressure from slower population growth, rising geopolitical risks, and increasing regulatory uncertainty. At the strategic asset allocation level: which asset classes should be avoided, and which stand to benefit?

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