Strategic Asset Allocation

The US is retreating from the global economic order it once built and safeguarded — the foundation on which growth and asset prices thrived. Looking ahead, this prosperity is under pressure from slower population growth, rising geopolitical risks, and increasing regulatory uncertainty. At the strategic asset allocation level: which asset classes should be avoided, and which stand to benefit?

Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plays a crucial role in an investors’ decision-making process. This report features the quarterly update of three SAA models, their portfolio characteristics and the data we have used to construct the SAA models. In addition, we update the Expected Returns based on the return assumptions of approx. 70 asset managers and present tables with volatility and correlation data for every asset class.

The U.S. is entangled in an implicit currency union with Asia, with mounting economic drawbacks. Trump's push to address this is constrained by China's control over the USD/CNY exchange rate, and his limited tools are creating their own economic fallout. Meanwhile, China faces growing incentives to revalue the yuan, increasing pressure for a free-floating USD/CNY. How will this seismic shift reshape financial markets over the next decade?