Trump is cornered and trying to find a way out:
Across areas such as AI, credit spreads, and private credit, a great deal is happening. However, at present, the war in the Middle East is by far the most important driver for financial markets. The key focal point is the Strait of Hormuz. This is understandable, as it has been effectively closed by Iran for several weeks, while under normal circumstances roughly 20% of global oil and gas consumption flows through this route. For helium and fertilizers, the share is even higher (helium is essential for semiconductor manufacturing).
As a result, prices for these commodities have risen significantly in recent weeks. So far, however, not to an extent that has fully disrupted the global economy. This situation should not be extrapolated too far forward, as substantial inventories were initially available and are currently being drawn down.
In the coming weeks…
