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Interest Rates Outlook

September: the month of rate hikes

Wednesday, 02 September 2026, written by Maarten Spek

The central banks in the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone are likely to raise interest rates this month. In doing so, the Fed must still take into account a possible clash between Warsh and Bessent, while the ECB faces a triple stagflationary threat consisting of higher energy prices, drought, and growing political uncertainty. In this report, we explain why this is happening and what it specifically means for European and U.S. interest rates (EURIBOR, SOFR, and Swap rates).

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Real long-term yields hit new highs

Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Why are long-term interest rates rising while the Fed appears to be raising rates at a slower pace? Our latest interest rate report examines the structural forces behind the steeper yield curve, and outlines the outlook for short- and long-term interest rates in the US and Europe over the coming months and quarters.

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Probability of rate hikes has risen sharply

Wednesday, 22 July 2026

Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the shutdown of Russian refineries have recently driven up energy prices and inflation risks. As a result, rate hikes by the ECB and the Fed have become much more likely. However, we are seeing significant differences in the impact of this on European and US capital market interest rates…

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Stoic interest rate markets

Wednesday, 08 July 2026

There is a lot going on on the global stage, while inflation is above target and the economy continues to perform surprisingly well. Although interest rates are reacting to these developments, on balance they remain stable. However, there are a number of factors that could also lead to greater volatility in the interest rate markets in the coming months.
 

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Hedging Interest Rates Risks

Rising or falling interest rates can significantly impact your current and future financing costs.

Through our sister company, ICC Consultants, many ECR clients already benefit from independent hedging advice that combines clear strategy with hands‑on execution support.

Whether you face a hedge obligation under your financing arrangements, or simply want stable and predictable cash flows to protect profit margins from volatile interest rates, it’s worth having a conversation with us.

When should you reach out?

  • If you currently rely on your bank alone for hedging, an independent advisor ensures that pricing, strategy, and execution truly work in your best interest.
  • If you already work with an advisor, consider inviting us to provide a competitive quotation — our services are typically more cost‑effective.

With ICC’s interest rate specialists and real‑time pricing systems on your side, you gain full transparency, lower costs, and the confidence that nothing is overlooked and every decision is the best possible.


 

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