Skip to main content
Subject:

Tactical Asset Allocation

The stagflationary effect of higher import tariffs

Wednesday, 26 March 2025, written by Maarten Spek

Higher U.S. import tariffs aim to boost domestic production, promising economic growth and lower consumer prices. Yet, emerging trends suggest the opposite: tariffs may drive up costs for consumers, stall growth in the coming months, and, in the worst case, spark a trade war that could tip the economy into recession. While a global downturn isn’t imminent, we’re adjusting our asset allocation to navigate the rising uncertainty ahead.

This report is published: Monthly

Get access to this report

Get access

Previous reports

Lower growth opens the door to a final bullish phase

Wednesday, 26 February 2025

The sharp increase in geopolitical uncertainties, a stagnating European economy, and slowing US economic growth could be seen as a brewing storm threatening highly valued US stock prices. However, we believe slowing growth will lead to increased expectations of monetary stimulus, putting upward pressure on asset prices before a potential storm arrives later this year. As a result, we are adjusting several tactical asset allocations this month.

Read more

A DeepSeek end to US exceptionalism?

Wednesday, 29 January 2025

Most analysts expect the era of US exceptionalism – meaning relatively high US economic growth and US stock market outperformance – to continue. We beg to differ, as we explain in this month’s Tactical Asset Allocation. However, this doesn’t mean it’s time to underweigh equity just yet…

Read more

Trump's poker game

Monday, 16 December 2024

After Trump’s inauguration, a high stakes poker game will begin between de economic super powers. How Europe and China will respond to Trump’s bet will play a decisive role in the tactical asset allocation decisions.

Read more

A word from the author

"In this report I answer the question How would ECR invest? We express our views by indicating exactly how much we want to underweight or overweight each asset class relative to the Strategic Asset Allocation. The approach is fundamental and chart-technical combined with valuation metrics. It is a bridge between our mid-term macro views and your tactical asset allocation decisions. I'm always pleased to hear readers tell me it's been an  invaluable resource for their investment committee meetings as it provides a comprehensive insight and guidance in team their discussions. This is exactly what we want to achieve with this report"

 

 

 

Looking for a tailored White Label Solution?

With its easy-to-understand language and non-technical approach, our reports have gained recognition among industry professionals as ideal reading material for private clients. We understand that each financial professional has their own unique market views and investment strategies. That's why our white label reports can be delivered in such a manner that they are easily customizable to align with your specific outlook. You can exclude irrelevant sections, incorporate information from other ECR publications, and even provide explanations about your own investment portfolios, all to enhance your brand and offer a personalized experience for your clients.