What's Driving the Markets?
President Trump's approval ratings are hovering near historic lows. This appears to have prompted a more confrontational stance on several geopolitical issues. Trump has declared the ceasefire agreement with Iran void. At the same time, tensions within NATO are becoming increasingly visible. Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Europe's failure to support the United States during the conflict in the Middle East and with Spain's unwillingness to increase defence spending. In addition, the potential annexation of Greenland by the United States has once again returned to the political agenda.
With respect to developments in the Middle East, our base case is...
