Is a real oil crisis imminent?
Oil prices have risen sharply, yet the S&P 500 has not declined significantly so far. Outside the United States, equity markets have seen somewhat larger declines, though there is certainly no sign of panic. This suggests that markets are assuming current price levels will not persist for long. In other words, they expect the Strait of Hormuz to be largely reopened in the near future.
Several scenarios are being discussed as to how this could unfold:
