Research

The first warning signs: In our recent reports – including this week’s GFM report – we highlighted that government debt is rising too rapidly in many Western countries. Interest payments are increasing so quickly that they are beginning to crowd out other essential expenditures such as infrastructure, education, and research & development, all of which are vital for long-term growth. However, no one knows at what debt level the markets will stop accepting this trend. Once that threshold is crossed, long-term interest rates may spike sharply, causing interest payments to rise even faster, creating a vicious cycle. History shows that when this happens, central banks often intervene by financing large portions of government debt through money creation. This issue is now particularly relevant for two countries: