Skip to main content

Risk | Global Financial Markets

Inflation, stagflation or deflation

Thursday, 02 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

It is striking how differently economists and analysts view the implications of the Iran deal and the rise of AI for economic growth and inflation. If we look at the charts for gold, the yield curve, the S&P 500 and the dollar index, the markets’ expectations are quite clear. In this report, we examine what these market expectations are, how we view them, what role China’s rise plays in this context, and what this means for key interest rates and exchange rates.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

Get access to this report

Request Report

Previous reports

Oil prices fall, but the risk of inflation remains

Thursday, 18 June 2026

Following the deal between Iran and the US, energy prices have fallen and a major risk factor is now behind investors. Does this clear the way for falling inflation and further rising share prices, or will the Fed put new obstacles in the way in the form of higher interest rates?

Request Report

Is AI a bubble?

Thursday, 04 June 2026

Expectations regarding the positive impact of AI on the economy and profits are running high. Rightly so, but the share prices of AI-related companies have risen so sharply that the risk of disappointment regarding the profitability of AI investments has increased significantly. For the time being, we believe that developments in this area and what happens in the Strait of Hormuz will be decisive factors for the financial markets.

 


 

Request Report

Markets may be at a major turning point

Thursday, 21 May 2026

Unfortunately, there doesn’t ring a bell at the top. However, a number of developments are currently underway that suggest a significant stock market peak is imminent or has already been reached. If we are proved right and stock prices fall in the coming months, this will, via the wealth effect, also affect economic growth and, consequently, interest rates and exchange rates.

Request Report

Currencies: US dollar on the rise

Thursday, 25 June 2026, written by Edward Markus

Tensions in the Middle East have eased considerably of late, causing the price of oil to fall sharply. The European economy is benefiting relatively more from this than the US economy, which is positive for EUR/USD. Recently, however, the dollar has been strengthening and EUR/USD has been falling. This report examines how this is possible and what the outlook is for EUR/USD and other major currencies.

This report is published: Bi-Weekly

Read Report

 

Interest rates: A flatter yield curve due to the Fed’s pivot?

Wednesday, 24 June 2026, written by Maarten Spek

Following the recent Fed meeting, the US yield curve has flattened further, bringing an inverted yield curve closer – a development that has often served as a warning sign of recession in the past. In this report, we examine whether this is the case again and set out our specific forecasts for US and European short- and long-term yields for the coming months to quarters.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

Read Report
Hide in research topic menu
On