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Risk | Global Financial Markets

Inflation, stagflation or deflation

Thursday, 02 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

It is striking how differently economists and analysts view the implications of the Iran deal and the rise of AI for economic growth and inflation. If we look at the charts for gold, the yield curve, the S&P 500 and the dollar index, the markets’ expectations are quite clear. In this report, we examine what these market expectations are, how we view them, what role China’s rise plays in this context, and what this means for key interest rates and exchange rates.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

Oil prices fall, but the risk of inflation remains

Thursday, 18 June 2026

Following the deal between Iran and the US, energy prices have fallen and a major risk factor is now behind investors. Does this clear the way for falling inflation and further rising share prices, or will the Fed put new obstacles in the way in the form of higher interest rates?

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Is AI a bubble?

Thursday, 04 June 2026

Expectations regarding the positive impact of AI on the economy and profits are running high. Rightly so, but the share prices of AI-related companies have risen so sharply that the risk of disappointment regarding the profitability of AI investments has increased significantly. For the time being, we believe that developments in this area and what happens in the Strait of Hormuz will be decisive factors for the financial markets.

 


 

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Markets may be at a major turning point

Thursday, 21 May 2026

Unfortunately, there doesn’t ring a bell at the top. However, a number of developments are currently underway that suggest a significant stock market peak is imminent or has already been reached. If we are proved right and stock prices fall in the coming months, this will, via the wealth effect, also affect economic growth and, consequently, interest rates and exchange rates.

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Weekly Overview:

Saturday, 10 July 2026

Short on time? Our Saturday recap covers the week in a couple of minutes and gives you the main points and our key predictions. Want the full picture? Open the FX, Rates or GFM reports via the links below.

This is published: Weekly

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Interest rates: Stoic interest rate markets

Wednesday, 08 July 2026, written by Maarten Spek

There is a lot going on on the global stage, while inflation is above target and the economy continues to perform surprisingly well. Although interest rates are reacting to these developments, on balance they remain stable. However, there are a number of factors that could also lead to greater volatility in the interest rate markets in the coming months.
 

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Currencies: Trump’s waning popularity means greater uncertainty in the currency markets

Thursday, 09 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

Trump’s popularity has fallen sharply and he will have to pull out all the stops if the Republicans are to retain control of Congress in the mid-term elections in November. This means he does not want a war with Iran and wants to keep oil prices low. Iran is exploiting this by keeping up the pressure to force concessions from the US. This, in turn, makes Trump more unpredictable, and this is likely to continue to influence the currency markets for some time.

This report is published: Bi-Weekly

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