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Risk | Currencies Outlook

US dollar on the rise

Thursday, 25 June 2026, written by Edward Markus

Tensions in the Middle East have eased considerably of late, causing the price of oil to fall sharply. The European economy is benefiting relatively more from this than the US economy, which is positive for EUR/USD. Recently, however, the dollar has been strengthening and EUR/USD has been falling. This report examines how this is possible and what the outlook is for EUR/USD and other major currencies.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

End of the Strait of Hormuz blockade means greater volatility in currency markets

Thursday, 11 June 2026

Volatility in the currency markets has been low recently. We expect this to change in the coming months should the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz be lifted and investors become more willing to take on positions. However, even if the blockade continues for longer and oil prices rise as a res

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The imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz is by no means a foregone conclusion

Thursday, 28 May 2026

In principle, the dollar is a weak currency, partly due to the large twin deficits. However, there are a number of factors that could put further upward pressure on the US currency in the coming months. One of these is our expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for longer than the markets currently seem to be pricing in.

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The influence of public finances on FX markets is growing

Wednesday, 13 May 2026

Movements in the major currency exchange rates have been limited recently. However, we think this will change, with the outlook for public finances playing a key role. The situation in the United Kingdom clearly illustrates why…

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Interest Rates: A flatter yield curve due to the Fed’s pivot?

Wednesday, 24 June 2026, written by Maarten Spek

Following the recent Fed meeting, the US yield curve has flattened further, bringing an inverted yield curve closer – a development that has often served as a warning sign of recession in the past. In this report, we examine whether this is the case again and set out our specific forecasts for US and European short- and long-term yields for the coming months to quarters.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Global Financial Markets: Inflation, stagflation or deflation

Thursday, 02 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

It is striking how differently economists and analysts view the implications of the Iran deal and the rise of AI for economic growth and inflation. If we look at the charts for gold, the yield curve, the S&P 500 and the dollar index, the markets’ expectations are quite clear. In this report, we examine what these market expectations are, how we view them, what role China’s rise plays in this context, and what this means for key interest rates and exchange rates.

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