Post-War Inflation: According to Trump, the conflict in the Middle East will come to an end soon. At a minimum, this would imply an agreement regarding Iran’s enriched uranium and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Financial markets appear to be taking Trump at his word, as evidenced by declining prices for oil, gas, helium, and fertilizers. However, markets also recognize that production and transportation of these commodities cannot be restored overnight and will require time. Assuming this process takes several months, markets seem willing to look through the short-term disruption.
We are less convinced that developments will unfold so smoothly. While it is clear that Trump aims to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion, the key question is...
