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Risk | Currencies Outlook

Trump’s waning popularity means greater uncertainty in the currency markets

Thursday, 09 July 2026, written by Maarten Spek

Trump’s popularity has fallen sharply and he will have to pull out all the stops if the Republicans are to retain control of Congress in the mid-term elections in November. This means he does not want a war with Iran and wants to keep oil prices low. Iran is exploiting this by keeping up the pressure to force concessions from the US. This, in turn, makes Trump more unpredictable, and this is likely to continue to influence the currency markets for some time.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

US dollar on the rise

Thursday, 25 June 2026

Tensions in the Middle East have eased considerably of late, causing the price of oil to fall sharply. The European economy is benefiting relatively more from this than the US economy, which is positive for EUR/USD. Recently, however, the dollar has been strengthening and EUR/USD has been falling. This report examines how this is possible and what the outlook is for EUR/USD and other major currencies.

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End of the Strait of Hormuz blockade means greater volatility in currency markets

Thursday, 11 June 2026

Volatility in the currency markets has been low recently. We expect this to change in the coming months should the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz be lifted and investors become more willing to take on positions. However, even if the blockade continues for longer and oil prices rise as a res

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The imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz is by no means a foregone conclusion

Thursday, 28 May 2026

In principle, the dollar is a weak currency, partly due to the large twin deficits. However, there are a number of factors that could put further upward pressure on the US currency in the coming months. One of these is our expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for longer than the markets currently seem to be pricing in.

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Other available topics

Weekly Overview

Saturday, 10 July 2026

Short on time? Our Saturday recap covers the week in a couple of minutes and gives you the main points and our key predictions. Want the full picture? Open the FX, Rates or GFM reports via the links below.

This is published: Weekly

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Interest Rates: Stoic interest rate markets

Wednesday, 08 July 2026, written by Maarten Spek

There is a lot going on on the global stage, while inflation is above target and the economy continues to perform surprisingly well. Although interest rates are reacting to these developments, on balance they remain stable. However, there are a number of factors that could also lead to greater volatility in the interest rate markets in the coming months.
 

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Global Financial Markets: Inflation, stagflation or deflation

Thursday, 02 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

It is striking how differently economists and analysts view the implications of the Iran deal and the rise of AI for economic growth and inflation. If we look at the charts for gold, the yield curve, the S&P 500 and the dollar index, the markets’ expectations are quite clear. In this report, we examine what these market expectations are, how we view them, what role China’s rise plays in this context, and what this means for key interest rates and exchange rates.

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