Inflation, Stagflation, or Deflation?
We receive research from around the world, and what stands out is the wide divergence in current market expectations. The outlook for oil prices alone illustrates this clearly.
Morgan Stanley argues that, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market could move into surplus, putting further downward pressure on prices. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, expects oil prices to remain broadly in line with current levels for the time being. Other analysts, however, anticipate a significant increase in oil prices as global economic activity strengthens and inventories are rebuilt, reflecting the growing recognition of the vulnerability of key supply routes.
The outlook for the broader economy is equally divided. Some economists expect AI to advance rapidly, driving a substantial increase in productivity. In their view, this could lead to higher unemployment and ultimately result in deflation. Others...
