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Risk | Interest Rate Outlook

Stoic interest rate markets

Thursday, 09 July 2026, written by Maarten Spek

There is a lot going on on the global stage, while inflation is above target and the economy continues to perform surprisingly well. Although interest rates are reacting to these developments, on balance they remain stable. However, there are a number of factors that could also lead to greater volatility in the interest rate markets in the coming months.

This report is published: Bi-weekly

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Previous reports

A flatter yield curve due to the Fed’s pivot?

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Following the recent Fed meeting, the US yield curve has flattened further, bringing an inverted yield curve closer – a development that has often served as a warning sign of recession in the past. In this report, we examine whether this is the case again and set out our specific forecasts for US and European short- and long-term yields for the coming months to quarters.

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The Economic Implications of Higher Real Interest Rates

Wednesday, 10 June 2026

Real interest rates are rising alongside nominal rates. In the past, this was often a sign of stronger growth, as higher real interest rates were driven by companies borrowing more to invest. Now, however, other factors are also at play, and a further rise in real interest rates could set in motion a negative spiral that could have a significant impact on both short-term and long-term interest rates.

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The Fed risks falling behind the curve

Wednesday, 27 May 2026

The rise in long-term interest rates over the past period has been driven not only by higher energy prices but also by concerns over public finances and increased demand for capital. In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon (which is by no means certain), we therefore do not expect long-term interest rates to fall to the lows seen just before the Iran War.

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Weekly Overview: 

Saturday, 10 July 2026

Short on time? Our Saturday recap covers the week in a couple of minutes and gives you the main points and our key predictions. Want the full picture? Open the FX, Rates or GFM reports via the links below.

This is published: Weekly

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Global Financial Markets: Inflation, stagflation or deflation

Thursday, 02 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

It is striking how differently economists and analysts view the implications of the Iran deal and the rise of AI for economic growth and inflation. If we look at the charts for gold, the yield curve, the S&P 500 and the dollar index, the markets’ expectations are quite clear. In this report, we examine what these market expectations are, how we view them, what role China’s rise plays in this context, and what this means for key interest rates and exchange rates.

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Currencies: Trump’s waning popularity means greater uncertainty in the currency markets

Thursday, 09 July 2026, written by Edward Markus

Trump’s popularity has fallen sharply and he will have to pull out all the stops if the Republicans are to retain control of Congress in the mid-term elections in November. This means he does not want a war with Iran and wants to keep oil prices low. Iran is exploiting this by keeping up the pressure to force concessions from the US. This, in turn, makes Trump more unpredictable, and this is likely to continue to influence the currency markets for some time.

This report is published: Bi-Weekly

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